The 2024 US presidential election is about five months away, and a quarter of Americans disapprove of both major party candidates — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
These are the findings of a sociological study of 8,638 adults conducted by the Pew Research Center between May 13 and May 19.
Highest level of negative attitudes towards candidates since 1988
This is noted to be the “highest proportion of people expressing negative views of both candidates”in polls conducted by PRC and others around this point in the election cycle since the election 1988.
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— And that's nearly twice as high as four years ago, when 13% of Americans expressed an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, — the message says.
Note separately that the PRC poll was conducted before Trump was convicted on May 30 of 34 criminal counts in the “hidden money” in New York.
Researchers indicate that the previous maximum of negative attitudes towards both presidential candidates was reached in 2016. Around this point in the 2016 campaign, 20% of Americans expressed an unfavorable opinion of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Before 2016, in none of the seven previous presidential campaigns had more than one in 10 Americans expressed an unfavorable opinion of both major party candidates at that stage. And during several campaigns — the last of which was George W. Bush's fight against John Kerry in 2004 — there were no more than 5% of them.
In the current campaign:
- Slightly more than a third of Americans (36%) rate Trump positively and negatively — Biden.
- almost as many (34%) have a favorable opinion of Biden and a negative — about Trump.
- 25% view both candidates unfavorably, and only 3% view them favorably.
According to a 2024 poll, 39% of Americans rate Trump favorably, while 37% rate Biden favorably. Trump's rating is about the same as in 2016 (37%) but lower than in 2020 (42%). Biden's rating is lower than in 2020 (46%).
— Overall, the favorability ratings of major party presidential candidates in the last three elections have been lower than in the previous ones, — says the study.
So far in the last three election cycles, each of the major party candidates — Clinton and Trump in 2016, Biden and Trump in 2020 and 2024 — the favorability rating was below 50%.
In contrast, in every election from 1988 to 2012, at least one candidate had a favorability rating of at least 50% around this point. In 2004 and earlier, both candidates had a rating of at least 50%.
Party affiliation factor in assessments of presidential candidates
As the researchers note, the increase in negative assessments of party affiliation is one of the main factors in the decline in favorability of candidates from the major parties.
In this regard, the picture is similar to the growth of partisanship in approval ratings of the president's work.
Thus, ratings of favorability of candidates have become significantly more negative among members of the opposite party than several decades ago.
Only 8% of Democrats and independents who hold Democratic views evaluate Trump favorably. A similar share of Republicans and those who lean Republican (6%) have a favorable view of Biden.
By comparison, in 2008, 27% of Democrats had a favorable view of Republican nominee John McCain, while the same share of Republicans had a favorable view of Democratic nominee Barack Obama.
Favorable Views of Leaders of Both Parties
Americans' negative assessments of political leaders also extend to the leadership of both houses of Congress and the vice president.
Six in 10 have an unfavorable opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris, while 36% have a favorable view of her. Another 3% said they have not heard of her. These ratings have remained virtually unchanged since July 2023.
However, Americans are far more likely to have not heard of House Speaker Mike Johnson (37%) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (25%).
However, those who have heard of them rate both leaders of the US Congress more unfavorably than favorably.
Schumer's rating has remained virtually unchanged in recent years.
