Assistance to China allowed Russia to create an effective, sustainable and multi-layered defense against a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China last month to meet with leader Xi Jinping as Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russian invaders stalled. And China plays not the least role in this matter.
This is according to an analysis by Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and former senior US official, the Atlantic Council reports .
China ensures the flow of weapons to the Russian Federation
Open-source trade data suggests that a surge in imports of Chinese-made goods with critical military applications has played a key role in Russia's ability to bolster its defenses on Ukrainian soil and keep them equipped and supported to withstand counter-offensives.
Russia successfully switched to a defensive posture after the culmination of its offensive, entrenched itself in Ukrainian territory and was able to maintain its forces there despite significant losses of military equipment and huge expenditures of ammunition.
“While weapons and ammunition are flowing into Ukraine from NATO countries, they are counterbalanced by Chinese imports—not of weapons, but of materials vital to Russia's ability to maintain its ongoing persistent efforts to hold onto Ukrainian territory,” the report said.
Although the PRC has not yet crossed the red line of providing significant amounts of “lethal aid” to the Russian Federation, available trade data suggests that China is supplying vast quantities of manufactured goods and technologies vital to Russia's war effort.
“It is unclear to what extent Beijing facilitates this flow into Russia, rather than simply allowing it. What is clear is that it is given a huge volume and is very relevant to Russia’s military efforts,” the report says.
Chinese-made equipment for digging and moving soil literally helped Russia consolidate its forces in the Ukrainian territory it occupied. A significant increase in imports of vehicles, including super-heavy trucks, has likely allowed the Russian military industry to continue producing military vehicles key to maintaining combat power for defense in depth. These Chinese vehicles also allow the Russian military logistics system to transport equipment and supplies to the front.
China contributed to the production of tanks in the Russian Federation
A huge surge in imports of ball bearings from the PRC at this time also likely contributed to tank production. Finally, the continuous flow of silicon chips from the PRC has provided Russia with key components to restart weapons production, allowing Russian artillery, missiles and drones, for example, to continue destroying Ukrainian counterattack forces and civilian targets.
Taken together, all these materials allowed Russia to create an effective, sustainable and multi-level defense against a Ukrainian counter-offensive. Take them away, and it remains questionable at best whether Russia could sustain a defense deep inside occupied Ukrainian territory.
Chinese car exports to Russia could have prevented a catastrophic defeat for Russian troops. In August and September 2022, Ukraine made progress in containing Russian incursions, especially around the city of Kharkiv.
Exports of Chinese excavators to Russia in September 2022 more than tripled compared to the previous year and coincided with the construction of the Surovikin line.
How many weapons does China supply to Russia?
In just nine months of published data in 2023, the PRC's total direct exports of integrated circuits to Russia have already significantly exceeded the total annual pre-war level. The timing and scale of this surge strongly suggest a direct connection with the needs of military production.
These integrated circuits help support Russia's military production despite international sanctions. It is difficult to control trade flows of civilian microelectronics with military applications, and it is these dual-use items that Russia takes advantage of, according to Sam Bendett, an adviser at the Center for Naval Analysis.
In addition to Chinese-made electronics, China also exports Western-made components to Russia for military use. According to a study by the Institute of the Kyiv School of Economics, Western-made components make up the majority of dual-use technologies that Russia imports from China.
Countering Chinese dual-use exports to Russia is a more complex issue given the size of the Chinese economy, Beijing's hostility to the international order led by Washington and Brussels, and the complex risks facing constitutional democracy.
Let us remind you that the Ukrainian military discovered mortar mines made in China at one of the abandoned positions. We are talking about 60 mm fairly easily identifiable ammunition, like the M-83A high-explosive fragmentation.
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