The epidemiologist Eva Schernhammer will recommend the government on Monday not to announce any easing of the corona measures for the time being. The situation is “very complex” and it is not possible to predict further developments. Further openings could only be announced with a clear conscience if the number of infections remained stable and the certainty that “it will stay that way” and that it will not worsen by taking measures, she said to the APA and insisted on faster vaccination.
Image: APA
The government will evaluate the situation on Monday with experts, opposition and state representatives and then decide on how to proceed. Business, sport and culture have recently massively pushed for further openings from mid-March – but the number of infections has risen significantly after the easing three weeks ago. The seven-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants is already at 150, the estimated effective reproductive number of 1.11 is clearly above the critical value. And in the meantime the highly contagious N501Y mutation has spread widely.
The occurrence of the more dangerous mutations – especially the British, the South African had been contained quite well – is also one of the factors for the head of the Department of Epidemiology at MedUni Vienna that make the situation much more difficult to assess than in the first wave. In addition, the measures have constantly changed – “hard” lockdown, relaxation such as classroom teaching in schools, FFP2 masks, etc.
Extensive testing – which Schernhammer very much welcomes – makes things more complex: This also led to an increase in the number of new infections reported daily. “At some point it should level off” – you don't know when, however, and you don't know how far the higher number of cases can be attributed to the testing and how far, for example, to the virus mutations. In addition, there is the equally incalculable influence of immunity: The estimates of the number of people who are immune from a disease they have suffered are between seven and 30 percent.
“The situation is very volatile, it is impossible to predict in which direction it will change,” stated Schernhammer. This means that the wish of representatives of culture or tourism for planning security – i.e. a specific opening date – cannot be fulfilled. “It's hard to be sure when you should.” Since “caution is the mother of the porcelain box”, one could only recommend the government to wait before announcing any easing. “We can be happy when what is open can remain open,” said the epidemiologist.
To name an opening date, you would need “a pretty good cushion of security”. But this will only be achieved through vaccinations. This would have to be “significantly accelerated”: “The topmost principle should be vaccination as quickly as possible,” pleaded Schernhammer for intensive efforts to obtain more vaccines.
It makes sense that the risk groups were vaccinated first. This at least reduced the risk of the intensive care units being overloaded – even if the number of intensive care patients is currently as high as it was in mid-October at around 260. A “ray of light” is there for Schernhammer that the average age of the newly infected has fallen significantly, from 56.7 years at Corona peak times to 39.9 years now.
