TSN.ua decided to collect all the scenarios and forecasts regarding what Trump’s likely presidency will be like
Coming soon, November 5 , the United States will hold presidential elections. The current head of state, Joe Biden, and the previous, 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, will again fight for the presidency.
The loud statements of the former US President caused concern among both Europe and Ukrainians. And although we cannot say that it is Trump who will win the next election, TSN.ua decided to collect all the scenarios and forecasts about what Trump’s likely presidency will be like and who he is for Ukraine – friend or foe.
The complicated history of relations between Trump and Ukraine
“Ukraine occupies a difficult place in Trump’s world,” noted one of the publications of The Wall Street Journal.
His former political strategist, and at the same time ex-lobbyist of the fugitive President Viktor Yanukovych, Paul Manafort, went to jail in the case of possible Russian interference in the American elections. In early March 2019, Manafort was sentenced to almost 4 years in prison for fraud, and subsequently another 3.5 years for money laundering. The money laundering case involved income received from political consulting for Yanukovych.
In 2020, Trump, while in office as president, pardoned Manafort.
During his term, Donald Trump became the first US president to be impeached twice. In one of the cases, Ukraine was involved.
The United States even initiated an investigation into allegations that in July 2019, the then head of the White House allegedly put pressure on President Vladimir Zelensky to investigate the involvement of former US Vice President Joseph Biden and his son Hunter in corruption.< /p>
On the recording of the conversation, Zelensky will respond by promising the US President that the new Prosecutor General of Ukraine will be 100% his person, that he will study the situation.
Trump probably has a personal insult towards Vladimir Zelensky because of this whole story.
Therefore, it can be assumed that due to such problems, Trump’s attitude towards Ukraine is, to put it mildly, ambiguous. But his subsequent statements after his cadence further confuse the cards. The opinions of experts are radically different – from almost apocalyptic to forecasts that Trump can become the savior of Ukraine. But experts and political scientists are unanimous in one thing – that he is unpredictable and can do anything.
What Trump's policy towards Ukraine might be
The US Ambassador to Ukraine in 2006-2009, William Taylor, said that Trump may still have not decided on his policy on Ukraine. The diplomat assures that no matter who heads the White House, support for Ukraine will remain.
Political scientist Igor Reiterovich in the commentary “Fakty.ІСTV” predicts two scenarios for the development of events.
Trump is quite an emotional person. But on the other hand, he knows how to calculate the consequences of certain actions, although he very often takes them impulsively. He even once spoke about this: that if the Russian Federation does not accept any of his proposals, he will provide Ukraine with such support that it did not even dream of during the rule of the Democrats, says Reiterovich.
It was Trump who provided Ukraine with Javelins
Assuming that Trump, as president, will block arms supplies to Ukraine, it should be recalled that it was during his tenure that the Armed Forces of Ukraine received Javelin anti-tank missile systems. Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama, categorically refused to provide lethal weapons to our country. Let us note that Joe Biden was the Vice President of the United States during the Obama administration. And according to unofficial information, it was Biden who was responsible for the foreign policy relations of the United States with Eastern Europe.
“You know, Trump is perceived thanks to his, I would say, ultra-charismatic actions, his reputation and phrases. But who sold the first American weapons to Ukraine? President Trump – “Javelins”. Who started the program of free transfer to Ukraine of the first naval vessels, boats like Island and Mark-6 – Trump. Who fought with Nord Stream 2 and imposed sanctions on the well-known but already forgotten ship Fortuna, which laid this pipeline? It was Trump,” former Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin recalled, reports. NV.
Help to Ukraine – it’s all about the money
Donald Trump is a businessman and views politics from a business perspective. Criticizing military and financial aid to Ukraine, he called Vladimir Zelensky “the biggest seller in history.”
“I'm telling you, Zelensky is one of the best salesmen in history. Every time he comes to a country, he comes with 50 or 60 billion dollars. I could never do that. He is the best salesman . Better than many. We must lend them, and if they suddenly manage to win, they will return them to us,” he said in a mocking tone.
Actually, this is the point: Trump is not against assistance to Ukraine, he simply believes that this assistance should be in the form of loans or credits, and not free of charge.
Political scientist Igor Reiterovich also believes that Trump can reformat aid to Ukraine – in the form of a loan, using confiscated Russian assets or oil revenues, but not with direct funds from American taxpayers.
Attitude towards Putin
Experts note that Trump avoids publicly criticizing the Russian dictator. During a speech in Iowa, he said that he has a good relationship with Putin:
“Putin and I communicate well (get along fine), very well. And this is good, not bad.”
In an interview with CNN last year, Trump called Putin “a smart guy who made a huge mistake.”
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump, as head of the White House, often criticized Ukraine for corruption, as well as supported Russia's claims.
The publication claims that after his first meeting with Putin in Germany in 2017, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Washington’s support for Kyiv, and in a conversation with European leaders he called Ukraine “part of Russia” and “your Ukraine “.
In June 2018, at a G7 meeting in Canada, he allegedly said that Ukraine was “one of the most corrupt states in the world.”
Important announcement at the beginning of the invasion
However, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Trump temporarily changed his rhetoric. On Stuart Varney's Fox program, the politician accused Putin of killing thousands of people in Ukraine. Trump emphasized that during his term, a Russian invasion was avoided.
“Putin says: “Don’t you dare send anything!” At the same time, he is killing thousands and thousands of people. He behaves as if we are the aggressor. We are sending a 44-year-old plane (we are talking about MIGah – Ed.), which is probably quickly shot down in the sky. And he behaves like terrible people. But what he does is a human tragedy. In a sense, nothing like this happened. , exactly since World War II,” Trump said in March 2022.
He also said that he would launch oil production in the United States. This will help significantly reduce oil prices in the world, and accordingly the war in Ukraine will end, because Russia would not have the money to finance the army.
“When he [Putin] invades and kills thousands of people, we will just sit and watch? In 100 years, people in this country will be talking about what a tragedy this is! What a terrible story! We cannot allow this to happen,” Trump said.
In addition, he spoke about the need to transfer drones to Ukraine.
The scandalous “peace plan”, leaked by the media and a statement about the bombing of Moscow
The Washington Post, citing its own sources, writes that “Trump’s proposal is to push Ukraine to transfer Crimea and Donbass to Russia.” The plan was supposedly to weaken Ukraine without helping it. So that after Trump’s inauguration, in January 2025, Kyiv will have no other choice but concessions to Russia, including territorial ones.
On the other hand, such a peace plan is in stark contrast to Trump’s recent closed statement at one of his campaign events with sponsors. Its details are described by the same The Washington Post.
“At one event, for example, he suggested that he would bomb Moscow and Beijing if Russia invaded Ukraine or China invaded Taiwan, surprising some donors,” the piece says.
Trump constantly says that he will bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table. Is this really possible
We have lost count of how many times during the full-scale invasion Donald Trump claimed that he could stop the war in 24 hours and bring dictator Putin and Vladimir Zelensky to the negotiating table. Last year, he advised Ukraine to “cede territory.” And recently he again confidently stated that he would “end the war” of the Russian Federation against Ukraine if he wins the elections.
Professor of history at the Catholic University of America Michael Kimmage, in an interview with First Western, suggested that if negotiations with Russia do not succeed, and Trump does not want to look like a loser, unable to protect US interests, then he may continue the policies of Joe Biden and continue to provide weapons.
“Or he could escalate. I don't think he can leave Ukraine because that would hurt Ukraine, Europe and the US,” says Kimmage.
“We know that Trump considers himself a strong man and does not want to be associated with a failure in foreign policy,” said former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, Radio Liberty reports.
According to Herbst, Russia's victory in Ukraine, if Trump were president, would look very similar to his foreign policy defeat.
“Trump expects to have a conversation (with Putin – ed.) from a position of strength, to force Russia to resolve the situation and leave (Ukraine – ed.),” Congressman Rich McCormick told Voice of America.
Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnikov believes that Trump, if elected, will not even try to convince Putin, but will simply name his conditions. When he quickly understands that it is impossible to come to an agreement with Putin, he will begin to act completely otherwise.
“Trump is a man with an inflated ego, and if this is also emphasized by the position of President of the United States, then he sincerely believes that if he makes Putin an offer, then Putin should accept this offer. And if Putin does not accept this offer, then he may act by force, because Putin will be afraid of him,” says the journalist.
Threat of World War III
“First there will be attempts to reach an agreement. Then, when it becomes clear that Putin does not want to reach an agreement, there will be a sharp cooling in relations. And then a forceful blow may occur, and each will consider that the other will be afraid. However, since both live in their own world, then no one will be afraid and the Third World War will begin. I don’t know whether it will also happen in North America or only in Europe,” says Portnikov.
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In his opinion, during this global conflict the rivals will exchange blows, including nuclear ones. And Ukraine will be one of the theaters of military operations of this war, but not the most important.
“This could happen in the next two or three years,” the journalist concluded.
The BBC reports Michael Kimmage as saying that Donald Trump may be less cautious about nuclear war than his predecessors.
According to the expert, this is necessary in order to improve positions during negotiations and bluff.
“His anarchic style of communication creates risks. He cuts from the shoulder – most often because of social networks. Unable to end the war in 24 hours, Trump may raise the stakes, and Putin may respond in kind,” — suggests Kimmage.
In 2022, in an interview with Fox, Trump commented on Putin's nuclear blackmail.
“He (Putin. – Ed.) says that they have nuclear power. But we are a more powerful nuclear state. I have restored our nuclear potential in a way that no one ever thought possible. He says that he is a nuclear state. But we are a big nuclear power. We have the best submarines, the most powerful designs ever created. Nobody knows where they are: “If you remember that word [nuclear] again. , then we will send these things [nuclear submarines] to you, and they will patrol your shores,” Trump sharply noted
Trump is neither good nor bad for Ukraine
In the end, in world politics there is no “black” and “white” (except for Russia and its satellites, of course). Everyone works exclusively for their own interests. This was noted by former Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin. According to the diplomat, Trump is neither good nor bad for Ukraine. He cares about his own interests first.
Klimkin noted that the EU is afraid that Trump will be unpredictable.
“And he can be like that. He has a certain environment with which he has the opportunity to communicate. But even people who know him well say he can go here or there. At first he says one thing about Ukraine, and then he says no, Ukraine is great.
Trump says one thing today, tomorrow a second, a third… He can say – I need Ukraine and Russia to talk, but I will increase assistance to Ukraine. Or if something doesn’t happen, I’ll put pressure on Russia. Or if Ukraine doesn’t want to talk, I’ll find leverage,” says the ex-minister.
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