~6 0~p>The Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia
Russian military command likely has a number of plausible courses of action (COA ) to respond to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk region. ISW is not yet ready to assess which of these possible scenarios is most likely.
This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War.
However, analysts do not rule out that the Russian command may use more than just one option to respond to breaking through the state border.
“The Russian military command’s decision-making will be influenced by its perception of the size and capabilities of Ukrainian forces in the area, on which ISW makes no assessment,” the Institute notes.
Four RF response scenarios
COA 1. The Russian military command may decide to use existing conscripts, border guards, the FSB, the Russian Guard and other irregular forces deployed in the international borders in order to push back the Ukrainian Armed Forces and protect themselves from their operation in the Kursk region.
COA 2:The Russian military command may decide to use the existing Northern Group of Forces deployed along the Russian-Ukrainian border to respond to a Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region.
COA 3: The Russian military command may redeploy operational reserves accumulated for the planned offensive effort in the summer of 2024 to the region, or relatively better-supplied and more combat-ready frontline units from elsewhere in the theater.
COA 4: The Russian military command may seek to preserve the forces currently in the Kursk region, but could redeploy significant number of aircraft and strike units in the area, trying to improve Russia's ability to retake the territory.
“The lack of a coordinated Russian response to the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region and the reported speed of their advance indicate that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia,” ISW notes.
Analysts are concerned that official Ukraine has not yet commented on the operation in the Kursk region. In turn, US officials noted that the operation on Russian territory does not violate Washington's restrictions on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in the border areas of the aggressor country.
Recall that ISW also assessed what the “breakthrough” in the Kursk region will mean for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Analysts note that the Kremlin will try to regain control of the territory in the region.
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