The average annual temperature in the northern hemisphere may return to normal as early as 2035, but the climatic models that scientists are building differ greatly, Tatyana Pozdnyakova, chief specialist of the Moscow meteorological office, told RBC.
“Now our climate is warming. We believe that anthropogenic factors are partly to blame for this, but the system also has its own fluctuations. As for 2035: it is difficult to say, maybe the trend for an increase in temperature will not continue and the average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere will return to normal, ”she said.
According to her, many scientists have previously stated about the inconstancy of the processes of climate warming on Earth.
Deputy Director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Semenov said in a conversation with RBC that the return of temperature to the climatic norm is possible closer to the second half of the 21st century.
“Indeed, according to the Paris Agreement, they want to achieve zero emissions by the 30th or 40th year, so that emissions become equal to absorption, and then they begin to decline in the fact that something will happen in 2035 – this is a very vague framework. Surely we will not achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, because, let's say, they are quite ambitious, but we need to move in this direction, perhaps by 40-50, “he said.
According to him, the problem of global warming is caused by the energy imbalance of the system, when the incoming solar radiation is equal to the outgoing thermal radiation. “Because of the increase in the greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, this balance is violated, and because of this, the temperature rises,” explained Semenov.
The Paris Agreement was signed by representatives of 196 countries at the 2015 climate conference. It is assumed that the document will replace the Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997 (it provides quotas for greenhouse gas emissions).
The goal of the Paris Agreement is to keep the average temperature on Earth up to one and a half degrees above the average temperature of the pre-industrial period (from 1850 to 1900). Among other things, the document provides for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the allocation of about $ 100 billion a year to poor countries to solve environmental problems. Russia joined the agreement in September 2019.
A day earlier, Yevgeny Tishkovets, a leading specialist of the Phobos center, said that after 2035, according to one of the climate development models, a new climatic era may begin. “One of them (of the models – RBC ) gives us the chances that after 2035 we will begin to return to the balance of the climate system. And not only will we return, but later we will open the door to begin the countdown for a new climatic era, the so-called interglacial and ice age, ”he said then. As Tishkovets later explained to RBC, “this is just one of the possible scenarios.”
On August 10, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (IPCC) published a report in which it recorded faster and more intense climate change in all regions and the entire climate system on the planet.
According to experts, it will take about 20-30 years to normalize the temperature by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide. However, sea levels will continue to rise and natural disasters such as heat waves and hurricanes will be more frequent.
Scientists also concluded that humans are responsible for most of the climate change. UN Secretary General António Guterres called the report a wake-up call for all mankind. “This alarm is deafening, and the evidence presented is undeniable,” he said.
