Due to the many ambiguities, however, the forecasts should be viewed with reservations.
After Brexit, experts expect significantly fewer British exports to the EU in the medium term. “Brexit will create new trade barriers between Great Britain and the EU, which will lead to lower trade volumes and thus to income losses due to higher prices and less efficient production,” writes Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics in a report that the think tank ” UK in a Changing Europe “on Tuesday in London.
“Brexit is likely to make the UK poorer in the long term than if it had remained a member of the EU,” said Sampson. Ten years after Brexit, the think tank predicts that there will be more than a third fewer British exports to EU countries despite the trade pact signed with the EU.
After all, the expected exports at this point in time are likely to be more than 10 percent above the volume that had been calculated for a Brexit without a trade pact with the EU – a so-called no-deal Brexit.
Overall, ten years after Brexit, the experts expect around 13 percent less trade volume between Great Britain and the EU than before – but four percent more than in the no-deal scenario.
However, such forecasts should be viewed with reservations, as much is still unclear. Time must show, for example, which industries will be hit particularly hard by Brexit, how the exit from the EU will affect productivity in the country and how the recovery and rebuilding of the economy will proceed after the corona pandemic.
In 2019, shortly before Brexit, 43 percent of British exports went to the EU, while 51 percent of imports to Great Britain also came from the EU.
The trade pact concluded at the last minute between London and Brussels allows both sides to have duty-free access to each other's markets, but it still brings with it trade hurdles – such as complex border controls and other formalities.
