The precious metal trading company Heraeus expects a robust demand for gold as a safe asset class for 2021. “The attractiveness of gold is increasing, especially against the background of negative real interest rates and increased inflation expectations,” said the annual outlook published on Wednesday. The demand from financial investors remains “an essential support factor,” said Heraeus expert Hans-Günter Ritter.
Over the course of the year, Heraeus estimates that the gold price could rise to 2120 US dollars (1745.86 euros) per troy ounce (31.1 grams). Heraeus is not alone in this assessment. Citibank, for example, has just reiterated its forecast of $ 2,100 for the next six to nine months. The precious metal currently costs $ 1,846. The previous record high was reached last August at $ 2075. After that, the gold price tended to fall.
The price for gold could of course fall back to $ 1,760 in the course of the year, according to Heraeus' annual outlook. However, the expert Ritter assumes that the gold price at the end of 2021 is likely to be in the upper half of the estimated price range. “I'm sure I can see him a lot more firmly than today,” said Ritter. Accordingly, the gold price at the end of the year should be closer to $ 2,000 than $ 1,800.
In the course of the year, the gold price will be supported by the considerable economic uncertainties that exist despite the hope for effective corona vaccines, according to the annual outlook. In addition, the “fiscal and monetary policy environment continues to provide support”. The Heraeus experts also referred to the recent rise in inflation expectations. These are currently higher than at the beginning of 2020. In addition, the central banks should also continue to act as buyers on the gold market this year.
On the supply side, Heraeus expects a recovery over the course of the year. Experts believe that gold mines can be closed again as in 2020 in the wake of the corona crisis. However, this is assessed as “less likely”. In general, the trading house assumes that the primary supply on the world market this year is likely to reach a level similar to that in 2019.
Silver should develop better this year than the gold price, said Ritter. Here a trading range of between $ 21 per troy ounce and $ 36 is expected. Silver is currently trading at a good $ 26.
