Researchers from Germany and Canada have shown that Europe is facing more frequent droughts in the future, which will be longer and more severe. An article by scientists was published in the journal Frontiers in Water.
Scientists from Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich and Ouranos have divided the continent into eight regions with different climates – the British Isles, Scandinavia, Central Europe, the Alps, Eastern Europe, France, the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. The researchers then used the climate model they created to calculate the ratio of predicted future precipitation (from 2080 to 2099) to normal – precipitation from 2001 to 2020 – under the so-called RCP8.5 scenario (maintaining the current level of hydrocarbon emissions).
The analysis carried out by the researchers showed a significant increase in the number of droughts. At the same time, changes in the frequency of droughts depended on the region. Summer droughts will become more severe and winter ones less frequent. The difference between seasonal precipitation will also increase: it will fall more often in winter and less in summer.
The strongest trend towards more frequent droughts – by more than 50 percent – will be in the Alps, France, the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. Droughts in the Alps and Eastern Europe will intensify – by 40 and 20 percent, respectively.
