The negotiations continue
Despite the extreme time pressure, the European Union still sees opportunities for a trade pact with Great Britain from January 1st after the end of the Brexit transition period. The next few days are crucial, wrote EU negotiator Michel Barnier on Twitter on Monday. There is almost no time left for a possible treaty to be ratified by the European Parliament, among others, before the end of the year.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had agreed to continue the negotiations, although they had actually announced a decision for Sunday. The Brexit transition period ends on December 31. Then, after leaving the EU at the end of January, Great Britain will also leave the internal market and the customs union. Without an affiliation agreement, there is a risk of tariffs and trade barriers.
Von der Leyen said on Monday that one question was crucial: “And that is whether Great Britain wants smooth access to the internal market”. Great Britain is welcome: “But they either have to play by our rules, because that is a question of fairness for our companies in the internal market, or the other option is that they pay a price and the price is tariffs.”
In doing so, she was alluding to a mechanism that is supposed to ensure fair competition: if Great Britain deviates from EU standards, the EU could impose tariffs. In addition to EU fishing rights in British waters, the question is the central sticking point in the negotiations.
Despite the continuation of negotiations, Johnson said on Sunday that a no deal was still more likely than an agreement. In contrast, in briefings for the EU states and the EU Parliament on Monday, Barnier gave very cautious confidence.
“There could be a narrow path to an agreement if the negotiators clear the remaining hurdles in the next few days,” said an EU diplomat. There has been some progress in the past few days. “But – at times considerable – differences still have to be bridged,” it said.
EU diplomats told Reuters news agency that chief negotiator Barnier had shown reluctance to the prospect of an agreement behind closed doors. “The patient is still alive, but keep the undertaker's abbreviated dialing code,” said one diplomat.
The dispute over fishing rights affects France in particular. But the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was calm on Monday in the face of a threatened hard break between Great Britain and the EU. The British have the most to lose, Le Maire said on French radio. The Brexit proponents, on the other hand, believe that Great Britain will do better economically regardless of decisions from Brussels.
The spokesman for the German government, Steffen Seibert, said in Berlin that any attempt to reach an agreement is welcome. But time is already running out.
Austria's European Minister Karoline Edtstadler (ÖVP) said on Sunday evening in the ORF's discussion program “In the center”: “The longer it takes, the more likely it will be that there will be no agreement.” It is important that the 27 EU states “stick together” and “support their negotiators”, she stressed.
Irish Prime Minister Michael Martin said in Dublin on Monday that he was confident that the negotiators would still reach a trade pact in the coming days. But there are still significant hurdles: “I am hopeful, but I would like to highlight the extremely significant challenges (…)”, Martin told the broadcaster RTE. These concern competition rules and fishing: “These are very difficult questions.” The Brexit transition phase will not end until New Year's Eve, but both sides are guided by the fact that negotiation results will be needed in the next few days.
If an agreement is not reached and a trade agreement is ratified in good time, there are basically three options: a provisional application of an agreement if it comes about before the end of the year; a transition period of a few days or weeks without a contract; or a permanent coexistence without a trade agreement. Barnier campaigned for understanding on Twitter. Never before had such a comprehensive contract on trade, energy, fisheries, transport, police and judicial cooperation been negotiated so transparently and in such a short time.
