People close to the Russian president say he sees the invasion of Ukraine only as one front in the conflict with the West.
The Russian elites have gotten over the first shock of the war in Ukraine unleashed by Putin in February 2024, and are now preparing for the fact that the Kremlin’s master will continue the confrontation with the West by committing aggression against one of the NATO states.
Russian journalist and military analyst Mikhail Zygar writes about this in the publication Foreign Affairs.
How the attitude of the Russian elites to the war has changed
The author of the publication recalled how the attitude of Russian elites to the war unleashed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine changed. According to him, immediately after the full-scale invasion, the oligarchs were in a state of shock due to the sanctions and travel ban imposed by the West; many considered the war in Ukraine a catastrophic mistake.
“Russia, which we love very much, has fallen into the hands of idiots,” the author quotes Roman Trotsenko, the former head of the largest shipbuilding company in the Russian Federation, as saying to another businessman during a telephone conversation.
According to Mikhail Zygar's observations, at the end of 2023, the elites began to approve of the war. More musicians began to tour the occupied territories. In October, the owner of Russia's largest private bank, Mikhail Fridman, returned to Moscow from London, deciding that life in the West under sanctions was unbearable, while the situation in Russia was relatively comfortable.
“Russian elites have learned to stop worrying about conflict. They have come to believe that invasion, even if they don't support it, is a tolerable fact of life. As a result, the chances that they could challenge the Kremlin's always minor decisions have disappeared completely. And instead In order to debate whether to support Putin, Russian elites are now discussing another question: how the war could end,” the author writes.
Putin will not stop in Ukraine
Mikhail Zygar claims that among the Russian elites there are different opinions regarding the end of the war.
“Some believe that a big victory on the battlefield will allow Putin to claim partial victory and therefore stop the war. Others believe that Putin will not stop until he reaches Kiev. Some believe that what really matters to Putin is confrontation with the West, and not a victory in Ukraine, and that in this way he will attack another state in Europe, no matter what happens with the current conflict. But several pessimists argue that the premise of the question itself is wrong. In their opinion, the war is in Putin's political interests, so he. will fight as long as he lives,” the author noted.
As Mikhail Zygar noted, the current war for Putin is not only and even mainly not about Ukraine.
“People close to the Russian President say that he sees the invasion of Ukraine only as one of the fronts of the conflict with the West. This means Russia's success on the battlefield may not be enough to please Putin. To defeat his real enemies in Brussels and Washington, Putin may feel he needs to attack a NATO member,” the analyst writes.
Russian elites, according to the journalist, consider Estonia or Latvia the most likely target. Both Baltic countries have large Russian minorities, so Moscow will follow a familiar pattern.
First, Russian Federal Security Service officers will force Russian-speaking citizens of one of the two countries to declare that they are being oppressed by a “neo-Nazi” government and need the Kremlin’s help.
In response, Russian troops will cross the border and take control of municipalities in the eastern part of any state, for example, the predominantly Russian-speaking Estonian city of Narva.
This territorial takeover will pose a serious challenge to NATO, an alliance founded on the principle that an attack on one of its members, no matter how small, is an attack on all. By taking Narva, Putin would test whether the bloc is truly willing to risk World War III just a few square miles on the Russian border.
Will there be a response from NATO?
As Mikhail Zygar noted, previously the Russian elite had no desire to risk a nuclear conflict. But now many are convinced that NATO will not dare to respond.
“They see the West as tired and divided, and therefore much less interested in fighting Russia. They view US President Joe Biden and European leaders as weak. In this context, they believe that NATO will not unite unanimously to defend a country under attack. Russian elites believe that NATO will be gripped by so much panic and chaos that the Alliance will do little and destroy trust in Western governments,” the author concluded. The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia is preparing for an upcoming large-scale war against NATO.
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