Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba rightly noted that in any war there are two finals: an unconditional total defeat of one of the parties or a peace agreement.
Obviously, no matter how much the Kremlin may dream, there will be no total defeat on the Ukrainian side, and hence no capitulation, in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
But the struggle for what terms an agreement will be reached, still ongoing.
Starting positions
An agreement is a search and fixation of mutually acceptable solutions. But Russia began negotiations with Ukraine with ultimatums.
The Russian delegation put the following demands on the table: “demilitarization”, “denazification”, abandoning the course towards joining NATO, recognition of the occupation of Crimea and the independence of the so-called LDNR.
It is clear that such “Wishlist” for Ukraine is absolutely unacceptable, especially since after almost a month of war, the results of the aggressor on the fronts definitely do not allow him to dictate conditions unilaterally.
From the military achievements of Russia since the invasion — only the occupation of part of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. And although Russia has seized these territories, it does not control them, Ukrainian authorities continue to operate there.
In principle, Moscow itself can hardly explain the essence of its “wishlist”. Take, for example, the so-called denazification, which was bravely picked up like a flag by Russian propaganda. She does not at all cling to Ukraine, whose president is of Jewish origin.
And after the bombings by the Russians of Babi Yar, Uman, the maternity hospital in Mariupol and the murder in Kharkov of the former prisoner of three Nazi concentration camps Boris Romanchenko, a completely logical question arises & # 8212; So who is really a Nazi in this war and who needs to be denazified?
It's the same story with the demand for “demilitarization”. So far, it is Russia that is successfully “demilitarizing” in Ukraine — Chernobaevka will not let you lie. In addition, then we should also talk about a mirror demilitarized zone in Russia near the borders with our state.
Ukraine's negotiating position calls for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of all Russian troops, and new security guarantees. The Ukrainian authorities are ready to discuss Crimea and Donbass exclusively within the framework of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Dancing around the negotiations
It is obvious that the demands of the parties are diametrically opposed.
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The only issue in which it was possible to bring positions closer, according to the Russian delegation, is the so-called neutral status of Ukraine, or refusal to join NATO.
Moreover, the Kremlin has already begun to gush with ideas about the Austrian or Swedish model of neutrality. To which they immediately answered in Kyiv that the model could be exclusively Ukrainian!
Photo: facebook. com/david.braun.50951
At the same time, talk about refusing to join NATO caused outright indignation in society.
Firstly, thinking about neutrality using the example of Austria and Sweden, one should not forget that they do not have 2 thousand km in common borders with Russia. Yes, both Austria and Sweden are not members of NATO, but they interact very closely with the Alliance.
Austria is generally cordoned off from all sides by NATO countries, its only neighbors that are not members of the Alliance are Switzerland and Liechtenstein, an attack from which side to Austrian territory is hardly to be expected.
Both Austria and Sweden regularly conduct joint exercises with NATO. In general, Sweden is called a “neutral” ally in the official documents of the Alliance.
Secondly, Ukraine already ate “neutrality” during the time of Viktor Yanukovych, having been attacked in 2014 by Russia.
In Thirdly, the course of joining NATO is enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine. Changing the Basic Law at the request of the aggressor against the background of the heroic resistance of Ukrainians is not the most acceptable solution for Ukrainian society.
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Against the background of NATO's refusal to close the sky over Ukraine after the Russian invasion, the current rhetoric of Volodymyr Zelensky's “cooling” towards the Alliance is understandable.
Ukrainian authorities publicly recognize that no one is waiting for us in NATO in the next 10 years, which means, they say, there is nothing to strive to get there.
But before February 24, this was also obvious. Moreover, Moscow is well aware that no one expects Ukraine to join NATO, but still puts forward such a demand.
Judging by the latest statements, Kyiv is ready to exchange the course enshrined in the Constitution for Euro-Atlantic integration for a new security structure, in which the nuclear states – the US, the UK and neighbors like Turkey will act as guarantors of our sovereignty.
Now Ukraine is focused on establishing during the negotiation process what security guarantees the Russian Federation is ready to provide Ukraine, as well as other states, primarily the permanent members of the UN Security Council.
After we we will understand what kind of security guarantees we are talking about, we will be able to decide where our constructive step will be. I would not now start a conversation about neutrality or any other area, but about how Ukraine will receive security guarantees and what they will be.
Neutrality in itself is not the solution to the problem. The solution is security guarantees, and not like the ones in the Budapest Memorandum, — says Dmytro Kuleba.
But in this case, it would be more rational to immediately hold negotiations not in the Ukrainian-Russian format, but with the involvement of Western countries.
& #8212; These should be negotiations between Ukraine and Western leaders with the Russian Federation. We cannot leave these negotiations face to face. After all, Western partners will not give us any guarantees if we do not oblige them to take part in this process immediately, – says the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Volodymyr Ohryzko.
It turns out that the ideal negotiating structure for Ukraine is a ceasefire, the withdrawal of troops, and then a discussion of security guarantees and the status of the previously occupied Crimea and Donbass. Russia wants to sign any documents here and now, even without stopping the bombing.
Maximum truce, not peace
Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul believes that the most favorable conditions for a peaceful settlement will create successes at the front.
The decisive factors in subsequent negotiations will be not so much the efforts of the negotiators, but the stability of Ukraine in repelling Russian aggression, the willingness of our partners to more effectively help Ukraine in strengthening its defense potential and the internal socio-economic and political situation in Russia, — states political scientist Vladimir Fesenko.
We hope for the heroism of our soldiers, the exhaustion of the enemy and the devastating effect of Western economic sanctions inside Russia. The Kremlin is trying to intimidate the Ukrainian society with barbaric bombing of civilian facilities and believes in stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine by the West.
At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that all issues with Russia can be resolved not at the current negotiations, but only at his personal meeting with Vladimir Putin.
They say that in Russia all decisions are made by one person, which means that you need to talk personally with him. But in Moscow they are in no hurry to agree to such a meeting, demanding at first to work out some documents.
For Putin, the very fact of meeting with Zelensky, whom he used to call both a “Nazi” and a “drug addict” – it's already a defeat. And even more so some negotiations with him. In addition, the entire civilized world calls Putin a war criminal. So it's amazing to sign anything with him.
Zelensky has already insulated himself from all disputes over compromises and the surrender of national interests by declaring that any decision regarding security guarantees in negotiations with Russia will be put to a referendum.
This further complicates the negotiations and especially the implementation of Russian “wishlist”. Therefore, if anything should be expected from negotiations with Russia, then only a temporary respite, and not the final security of Ukraine. In the meantime, the biggest guarantee of security for Ukraine and the most effective negotiator remains exclusively our army.
Whatever we agree with Russia now, if we agree on anything at all, it will be a truce, not peace. And for the next war, we must be ready at such a level that any Muscovite leader knows that his army will be destroyed on our roads. Then there will be no war,” political observer Vitaly Portnikov notes.
As Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir said: “We want to live. Enemies want to see us dead. This leaves not much room for compromise.”
