The pandemic has claimed the lives of about four million people on the planet, but every coin has a downside. Even such an absolute evil as the coronavirus has its advantages. This dialectical conclusion was reached by an international team of scientists who studied a delicate question: how did pandemic restrictions affect the activities of knife and ax workers?
Pandemic is a unique social experiment
The researchers analyzed daily crime registration reports from police departments in 27 metropolitan areas from 23 countries. For scientists, the outbreak of COVID-19 has become a unique opportunity to observe the situation when almost the entire population of the globe turned out to be guinea pigs. Sociologists collected data on six categories of crime: 1. robbery; 2. theft; 3. burglary; 4. robbery; 5. theft of a car; 6. murder.
“The lockdown measures that governments have taken in many countries have created ideal conditions for a series of natural experiments,” said study author Amy Nivett of the University of Utrecht. – We wanted to test two concepts of crime, which describe in different ways how restrictions on the population's right to travel, caused, for example, by natural disasters, power outages or epidemics, affect the level of crime.
One hypothesis, according to Dr. Nivett, suggests that such restrictions increase the level of stress, irritation, anger, and as a result, criminals take on their dirty work with renewed vigor. In turn, the theory of possibilities, on the contrary, says that the policy of “stay at home” interrupted the usual routes of movement of citizens, as a result – the paths of motivated criminals and their potential victims began to diverge. Thus, the introduction of a pass system, fines and other delights should have led to a decrease in crime.
The virus pushed villains to online scam
The processing of statistical data has shown amazing results.
– In all 27 cities (see full list), the number of robberies decreased by an average of 46 percent.
– The number of thefts fell by 47 percent.
– The number of robberies decreased by an average of 35 percent. The leader here was “Barcelona” – the European tourist Mecca, where the number of robberies and robberies decreased by 84 and 80 percent, respectively. By the way, the number of thefts in the city where Leo Messi plays has decreased 10 (!) Times – to 38 per day.
– The number of car thefts decreased by 39 percent.
– Household burglaries – 28% decrease. It is strange that the decline here is not so big, although it would seem: what in general can be stolen here when everyone is sitting at home? However, scientists explain this by the peculiarities of statistics – not in all countries they see the difference between whether a swindler climbed into a private house or into a store, office or warehouse. And these objects during the pandemic were left unattended.
– Least of all, the pandemic affected the number of homicides – their number decreased by only 14 percent. Here, according to Amy Nivett, two circumstances played a role. Firstly, a significant part of the murders takes place on a domestic basis; often the killer and the victim may be members of the same family. Here, self-isolation could only aggravate the situation. Secondly, a large number of the dead appear as a result of criminal showdowns between criminal gangs, when bandits, drug dealers and other riffraffs divide spheres of influence among themselves. And bulls and thugs don't pay much attention to blocking penalties.
The maximum drop in crime was observed 2-5 weeks after the introduction of coronavirus restrictions. Then the activity of romantics from the high road began to grow again. But the authors of the blocking decrees did not set themselves the task of eradicating crime, its reduction was a side effect of the fight against Sars-Cov-2.
The virus left scammers out of work, but the authors of the study believe that not all of them have taken the path of correction. Many have switched to online scams. The revitalization of the work of prison call centers and the “Sberbank security service” is a vivid confirmation of this.
Will not the punitive authorities defeat crime?
“The pandemic helped us understand the social processes and mechanisms that affect the level of street crime in cities,” said one of the study authors, Professor Manuel Eisner, director of the Center for the Study of Violence at the University of Cambridge. “No drinking in bars and pubs that end up on the streets. No idle onlookers and fans at football matches and musical parties. Restrictions have cut off the juices that fuel urban crime. After all, it is just a kind of urban activity.
Scientists believe that changing the daily routine and organization of public space (especially in neighborhoods where nightclubs and other hot spots are located) can arrange the life of megacities so that the villains and their potential victims intersect much less.
A number of principles for creating a safe urban space are already being actively used. Among them is the concept of social mixing, which involves the creation of neighborhoods where the cottages of wealthy citizens, low-rise buildings for the middle class and economy-class high-rise buildings for poorer citizens coexist. A good move is the resettlement of enclaves, where people compactly settle on religious, racial or social grounds (you need to resettle not only Harlem, but also Rublyovka). This also includes the creation of park and walking areas, playgrounds and sports grounds … Now this collection of tools can be significantly expanded.
The study marks a new twist in the famous “Age of Mercy” controversy from the movie “The Meeting Place Cannot Be Changed.” Well, you remember: “Crime in our country will be won not by punitive organs, but by the natural course of our life. Philanthropy, mercy,” – said the character of Zinovy Gerdt. To which Sharapov replied: “No, we will finish with the bandits – the punitive organs!” Perhaps the “era of mercy” will be brought closer not only by the kindness and wisdom of which the hero Gerdt spoke, but also by the scientific knowledge gained as a result of the fight against the deadly pandemic.
BTW
Cities participating in the study
Amsterdam
Barcelona
Brisbane
Vancouver
Hanover
Guayaquil
Cali
Lima
London
Ljubljana
Malmo
Mendoza
Mexico City
Montevideo
Muzaffarpur
Auckland
Rio de Janeiro
Sao Paulo
San Francisco
Seoul
Stockholm
Tallinn
Tel Aviv
Toronto
Helsinki
Zurich
Chicago
