Financier Sosnovsky: Turkish lira, Uzbek sum, peso and real may collapse in 2022
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Director of the regional network for work with wealthy clients “BCS World of Investments” Grigory Sosnovsky called currencies threatening to collapse in 2022. First of all, this is the Turkish lira, he pointed out, the Uzbek sum, the Argentine peso and the Brazilian real can also expect a decrease in relation to the dollar rate, the Prime agency reports.
“Lira is rapidly depreciating, state foreign exchange reserves are falling, the rate is at the level of 14 percent, foreign investors are already starting to leave and even flee from Turkish assets. At the same time, not everything is so dramatically bad in the Turkish economy itself, ”the financier said.
According to Sosnovsky, the problems in Turkey began much earlier than 2020, and the country's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pursuing an unpredictable economic policy.
The expert added that he does not consider the currencies of African countries, since even in significant countries nothing critical and practically applicable for the Russian investor does not happen. He examined countries with developing economies, whose income is associated with the export of raw materials and energy resources.
So, this is Uzbekistan, it is expected that the sum will gradually decrease against the US dollar due to the key rate of 14 percent, the growth of incomes of the population by more than 10 percent per year and the forecast of inflation at the level of 9-10 percent.
In addition, this is Brazil, where there has been a slowdown in economic growth for four months in a row and a decrease in the key rate is predicted, which is why the real will continue to fall against the dollar, Sosnovsky said.
In Argentina, the crisis has continued for several decades, and the rate is at a record 38 percent. Since 2016, the peso has depreciated six times and continues to decline, analysts do not see the completion of this process in the foreseeable future, the expert concluded.
Previously, Associate Professor of the Department of Finance and Prices of the PRUE. G.V. Plekhanova Diana Stepanova predicted a fall in the dollar exchange rate. According to the financier, in the long term, the position of the dollar, in spite of the positive forecasts associated with the Fed rate hike, is unstable.
