On June 27, the Russian National Guard, the FSB, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs conducted night raids on more than ten apartments of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, detaining more than 50 people.
They were natives of Azerbaijan. Russian law enforcement officials said these actions were part of an investigation into a series of serious crimes — murders and attempted murders — committed in 2001-2011, in which ethnic Azerbaijanis were suspected in Yekaterinburg — during the arrest of two Sadi brothers. deaths A forensic examination in Baku showed that Guseyn died of post-traumatic and post-hemorrhagic shock against the background of multiple rib fractures and other injuries, and his brother Ziyadin — of post-traumatic shock.
Although the Russian Investigative Committee said that the tortured men died of a heart attack and injuries, the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan launched an investigation into the deaths of its citizens due to torture and premeditated murder with particular cruelty. Russia handed over their bodies to Azerbaijan on June 30, claiming that Huseyn was an Azerbaijani citizen and Ziyadin was a Russian citizen. However, Moscow is lying as always, because Huseyn and Ziyadin Safarov are both citizens of Azerbaijan. And, no matter what Russian security officials say, the murder of foreign citizens by law enforcement agencies of another state is an international crime, which has once again exacerbated Russian-Azerbaijani relations.
How is the latest conflict between Moscow and Baku developing, and what could it lead to?
Spies and threats: Putin has not yet apologized for the plane
In response to the murder of two Azerbaijani citizens by Russian security forces and the arrest of nine more, the country's Foreign Ministry summoned Russia's Chargé d'Affaires in Baku, Pyotr Volokov. Moscow expressed “strong protest” over the raids, attacks, beatings and murders of Azerbaijani citizens by Russian security forces in Yekaterinburg during the raids on June 27. Immediately after this, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Culture announced the cancellation of all Russian cultural events in the country – exhibitions, concerts and festivals.
“In connection with the deliberate and extrajudicial killings and acts of violence committed by Russian law enforcement officers against Azerbaijanis on ethnic grounds, and given that such cases have recently become systemic, all cultural events planned in Azerbaijan with the participation of state statements and private statements are cancelled.
Azerbaijani politicians did not remain on the sidelines. The Azerbaijani parliamentary delegation cancelled its participation in a joint session with members of the Russian Federal Assembly due to the “demonstrative and illegal actions” of Russian security forces, which led to casualties and deaths of Azerbaijanis. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk’s visit to Azerbaijan this month was also cancelled. And Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov called the actions of Russian security forces “an operation to expel Azerbaijanis from Russia.”
“This just needs to be clarified. Is this an initiative of some local organization? Or is it an initiative of Moscow, which wants to express its dissatisfaction with Azerbaijan?” added Rasim Musabekov.
Already on June 30, during an operation in the office of the Russian propaganda media outlet Sputnik Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani Interior Ministry detained two Russian FSB officers working there. They are executive director Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov. As of Tuesday, July 1, seven people have already been detained in the Sputnik Azerbaijan case, opening a criminal case. On the same day, the Azerbaijani Interior Ministry announced the detention in Baku of a group of Russians – members of two organized crime groups on suspicion of drug transit from Iran, online trading and cyber fraud.
True, the story from Sputnik Azerbaijan has been going on since February of this year, when official Baku decided to suspend its activities, along with the closure of the “Russian House” – a structure of RosSotrudnichestvo under sanctions Yevgeny Primakov, which is simply a screen for Russian spies and FSB agents abroad. fulfilling Baku's “recommendation” on parity in the number of journalists of state media of Russia and Azerbaijan on each other's territory, because in Moscow, the Azerbaijani state agency “AzerTaj” has only one correspondent. However, Sputnik Azerbaijan ignored this.
The events of February — the closure of the spy “Russian House” in Baku and demands for Sputnik Azerbaijan to reduce its staff — are a direct consequence of Russia's shooting down of the Embraer passenger plane of Azerbaijan Airlines on December 25, 2024, en route from Baku to Grozny. Thirty-eight people died, 29 survived. The holes in the body of the crashed plane during an emergency landing at Aktau airport in Kazakhstan are characteristic of air defense strikes.
Two days after the crash, on December 27, 2024, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made clear demands on Russia: to apologize, admit guilt, punish the perpetrators, and pay compensation to the state of Azerbaijan, the injured passengers, and the crew. On December 28-29, 2024, in telephone conversations with Aliyev, Putin apologized “for the tragic incident in Russian airspace,” but did not admit guilt. The perpetrators were not punished either. As for compensation for the dead and injured, as well as the aircraft body, it was still paid by a Russian insurance company. However, the state of Azerbaijan never received compensation.
What's next: The standoff is only gaining momentum
In early January of this year, Aliyev said outright that Russia was trying to “hush up the incident,” but, according to him, the holes in the fuselage and the crew's testimony prove that the plane was shot down. Then the Azerbaijani president demanded that Russian airspace near Grozny be closed. However, the Kremlin, of course, ignored these statements. In February, the results of the investigation were published, revealing a fragment of the Pantsir-S air defense missile system that was used to shoot down the plane.
Following the raid by Russian security forces in Yekaterinburg and the murder of two Azerbaijani citizens, on July 1, Azerbaijani media published an anonymous letter with an explanatory note from an air defense captain from Grozny, claiming that fire was opened on the Azerbaijani plane by order of the Russian Defense Ministry. And the very next day, the head of the Investigative Department of the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan, Nemat Avazov, said that the results of the examination of the case of the destruction of the plane could be announced in a short time.
On Wednesday, July 2, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry summoned Russian Ambassador Mikhail Evdokimov, informing him of a protest “regarding unfriendly steps” and how raids by Russian security forces in Yekaterinburg and the murder of two Azerbaijani citizens are being covered in Russian propaganda media.
“It was emphasized that ethnic intolerance was observed in the Russian media regarding the raids, and the use of expressions such as “ethnic criminal group” in relation to Azerbaijanis is unacceptable. It was once again proven that we expect Russia to conduct a thorough and objective investigation of violations committed by Russian law enforcement agencies and punish those responsible,” the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
On Tuesday, July 1, Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke by phone with Ilham Aliyev, expressing condolences and “clear support from Ukraine in the situation when Russia is mocking the citizens of Azerbaijan and threatening the Republic of Azerbaijan.” As is known, Aliyev refused to participate in the “interruptions” parade in Moscow on May 9 of this year. And in June, Vladimir Medinskyy, Putin's pseudo-historian and head of the Russian delegation at the talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, compared Russia's war against Ukraine to Nagorno-Karabakh, which caused a sharp reaction from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry.
Experts do not believe that another aggravation of relations between Moscow and Baku can change the attitude of the Azerbaijani leadership so that, in addition to humanitarian aid, Ukraine will also start receiving weapons from Azerbaijan. At the same time, the rhetoric towards Russia in the Azerbaijani media has become even more aggravated. For example, in the article “The same Russia, the same scenario: chauvinism and cruelty,” the APA.az publication recalls the raids of Russian security forces in Yekaterinburg against Kyrgyz migrants in January 2024.
“The scenario of brutality against Azerbaijanis and the operation against the Kyrgyz just a year ago is the same. This gives grounds to claim that what is happening is Russia's state policy. This is Russia's attempt to demonstrate to the world the power that Putin has directly lost, and an attempt to survive by challenging Russian nationalism. This chauvinistic policy is very familiar to us,” the article on APA.az says.
So, as we can see, it is unlikely that the Azerbaijani leadership will back down and pretend that there is no plane shot down by Russia, nor two Azerbaijani citizens killed by Russian security forces. However, the Kremlin, with its actions, according to experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), is trying to maintain its influence in the region. But Russia has already effectively admitted that it has lost everything when, on June 10, 2025, the Russian Foreign Ministry, following Medinsky's words, recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan.
In addition, Western experts also pay attention to the events in Armenia, where on June 25 the authorities announced the disclosure of an attempted coup d'état, in which representatives of the Armenian Apostolic Church and 13 other people, including the Russian Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, are accused. After losing Nagorno-Karabakh as a means of influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan and strengthening Turkey's role in the South Caucasus, Russia also lost influence in Syria and Iran.
