The fall of the Iranian regime could lead to chaos, ethnic conflicts and waves of refugees.
Escalation between Israel and Iran, especially in the form of missile strikes, could have unpredictable consequences. One of the main risks is the destabilization of the Caucasus, which could cause a “domino effect” throughout the region and then the world.
This opinion was expressed by political observer Vitaly Portnikov in his note on Facebook.
“This region, located between Iran, Russia, Turkey and Europe, is not just a geographical bridge – it is the nervous system for the political balance from the Black to the Caspian Seas,” he stressed.
According to Portnikov, the likely collapse of the Iranian regime could lead to chaos, interethnic conflicts and waves of refugees moving to the Caucasus, Turkey, Europe – or even Ukraine or Russia.
“In Europe, such a wave could cause a new migration crisis similar to the Syrian one. And, as a consequence, the strengthening of extreme political forces – both right and left – which traditionally focus on Moscow,” the expert noted.
What will be the impact on the war in Ukraine?
According to Vitaly Portnikov, the fall of the Ayatollah regime in Iran will have its own echoes in Ukraine.
“If the Iranian regime collapses, Russia will lose one of its main allies. But at the same time, chaos in the region could complicate the situation for Ukraine – both geopolitically and in terms of migration. An alternative scenario, in which the ayatollah regime survives but loses its aggressiveness and nuclear ambitions, could reduce the risks for both Israel and Ukraine,” he noted.
The journalist added that the president of the aggressor state, Vladimir Putin, is using the Iranian crisis to weaken support for Ukraine in Europe, threatening a new wave of migrants.
Let us recall that on June 19, the White House announced that US President Donald Trump would make a decision on Iran within the next two weeks.
