First minus after eight increases in a row
The ongoing lockdown caused sales in the commercial economy in Germany to collapse after eight increases in a row in January. Industry, construction, trade and service providers together took 8.6 percent less than in the previous month, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Since the low point in April 2020, sales had risen continuously – most recently in December by 3.9 percent.
It is now 3.7 percent below the level of February 2020, the month before the restrictions due to the corona pandemic began in Germany.
The development signals a possible contraction of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the current first quarter. The economists at Deutsche Bank assume that it will decrease by 2.0 percent compared to the previous quarter. At the end of 2020 it was still enough to gain 0.3 percent, as rising exports and construction investments more than offset the decline in private consumption.
The leading indicator for the economic development of the commercial economy is determined from the monthly, but still incomplete, VAT returns. In this way, it enables early statements to be made on sales development before the official results from the surveys by economic sector are available. The data is adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, but not for price effects.
The construction industry in Germany achieved record sales in 2020, the Federal Statistical Office announced on Thursday. Compared to the previous year, the 9,100 companies whose figures are recorded by the Federal Statistical Office increased their revenues by 6.6 percent to 98.3 billion euros. The number of employees increased by around 18,000 to 505,000. Companies with at least 20 employees are recorded. However, the order situation in the individual construction sectors developed very differently in 2020: While there was an increase of 7.6 percent in residential construction according to dpa, it was minus 4.8 percent in commercial construction.
