Key points
- Joint Russian-Belarusian exercises “Zapad-2025” may be directed against NATO countries and will take place on the territory of Belarus.
- Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states are preparing for possible risks and provocations during the exercises, with Estonia in particular building fortifications along its borders.
The joint Russian-Belarusian exercises “Zapad-2025” may be large-scale and aimed against a conventional enemy from among NATO countries. The main part of the maneuvers will take place on the territory of Belarus near the borders with Poland and the Baltic countries.
The exercises may be accompanied by provocations, so Ukraine and the countries of the region are already preparing for possible risks. The head of the Center for Military-Legal Research, military expert, serviceman of the Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Musienko told Channel 24 about this.
How the Russian-Belarusian exercises “Zapad-2025” might take place
As before, according to Musienko, the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises “Zapad-2025” promise to be large-scale. Their concept remains unchanged – counteraction to a conventional enemy personifying one of the NATO countries. Of course, officially such a country will be called by a fictitious name, but it is obvious that, for example, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia is meant.
Preparations for the exercises are already underway: Russia has begun moving military forces to Belarus. The bulk of the exercises will take place on Belarusian territory, closer to its western borders – in particular, near the borders with Poland and the Baltic states. Some of the exercises will also take place directly in Russia, but the majority will be concentrated in Belarus.
This is worrying because it involves the active movement and accumulation of Russian troops. The Ukrainian side is also closely monitoring this – so that these troops do not begin to accumulate near the border with Ukraine.
Our partner countries are also monitoring this very carefully today,” the serviceman noted.
The Baltic States and Poland have already begun active preparations for possible risks. For example, Estonia has begun building a network of bunkers and fortifications along the borders with Belarus and Russia.
More specifics regarding the scale and location of Russian troops can be given closer to August, or immediately before the start of the exercises in September. Now Alexander Musienko does not rule out the possibility of provocations from Russia, especially against the Baltic countries and Poland. As for Ukraine, the risks are lower, but they also remain.
Back in January 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted during the Munich Security Conference that the Zapad-2025 exercises could pose a serious threat, primarily to European countries. These exercises also aroused the interest of US Special Representative Keith Kellogg, who visited Belarus, although the details of his mission remain unknown.
