What are the consequences of the technological crisis?
The global chip shortage will continue next year. This threatens to rise in price for almost all consumer goods. TSMC, the largest semiconductor manufacturer, has released its quarterly report. And although it managed to increase profits and ramp up production, the deficit is expected to remain there. The company notes that the demand for chips continues to grow – this is due to the development of 5G networks and an increase in the need for electronics.
The pandemic has led to factory shutdowns. And the consequences are not so easy to eliminate, says Anton Guskov, Director of Public Relations of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers RATEK: “It all started with the fact that even before the pandemic there were accidents at factories, they stopped because there were some emergency cases. Then there was a long stop during the very beginning of the pandemic. In parallel with this, the demand for household appliances grew due to the lockdown: people had to work from home, study.
And the coincidence of circumstances, of course, greatly influenced the market. The available capacities do not allow to increase the volume in such a short time.
Orders are piling up and queuing up. Many manufacturers are waiting for their goods. Of course, suppliers close the priority, the most urgent things or the most profitable for them, because there is a general deficit in the market. I think that, one way or another, all of us will somehow feel it, because it concerns high-tech industries and will affect the development of technologies in principle. “
In August, reporters learned that chipmaker TSMC was raising prices by 15-20%. The scarcity affects car makers and gadget suppliers the most. Samsung has warned about the problems, Apple also plans to reduce the release of new iPhones, wrote Bloomberg. Who else will the crisis affect? And how long will it last? Leading analyst of Mobile Research Group Eldar Murtazin answered these questions to Kommersant FM: “We already see that in 2021 prices increased by an average of 30-35%. For some product categories, they increased even more.
Unfortunately, we must state the fact that most of the electronics will rise in price by exactly two times by the beginning of the second quarter of next year. In such a short period of time, it has never happened in the global history on the world market. The advice for buyers is very simple and straightforward: if you have money and need to buy something, it is better to do it today, do not wait. Prices in factories change literally on a daily basis, and the lack of components does not allow the production of a sufficient number of devices that the market needs.
The proportion of electronics in equipment can vary greatly. It might be 5%, it might be 20%. In conventional cars, not in Tesla, the total share of electronics reaches 40%. Today we see that prices have already increased by two or two and a half times, and this, unfortunately, is not the limit. For a consumer product, this rise in price means that the value will rise a little later. All the same, equipment is purchased not so often, and the price seems to be diluted for the entire base of what the plant uses. But in general, this is another factor that will push the cost up. These are long-term effects as opposed to the consumer market.
The crisis will affect the next decade. Even if we imagine that there will be no further growth, the prices of goods in the next year and a half will rise by 40% only because of this ”.
To meet demand, TSMC plans, in particular, to build a large plant in Japan. Investments in the project are estimated at $ 9 billion. The country's authorities are ready to assume half of the costs.
Ilya Sizov
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