China has placed its bet on supporting Russia, but whether it will be justified depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
Despite the tough Western sanctions, Russia is still able to pay its bills and finance its war of conquest in Ukraine. Officials in Washington say it would be much more difficult for Moscow to do this without Beijing's support.
The New York Times writes about this.
China has stated that it will not sell weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine, but at the same time flaunts a “borderless partnership” and is expanding trade with the Russian Federation, including buying oil. Moscow uses the proceeds from this trade to produce weapons. In addition, the United States claims that in 2023 Russia purchased 90% of the total imports of electronics for its military-industrial complex from China. According to the authors of the article, Moscow could continue to finance the war without Beijing’s help, but then this would significantly weaken it.
The publication notes that Ukraine also received support, including weapons, from the United States and Europe.
“From this point of view, the war is more similar “more than part of a broader standoff between the United States and China – what some analysts call a new Cold War – rather than a one-off conflict,” the article says.
According to journalist David Sanger, who writes about national security and is the author of the recently published book “The New Cold Wars”, Ukraine has become the first front in the approaching 30- or 40-year confrontation between superpowers.
What China is counting on
China is taking a huge risk by supporting Russia. Western countries have already warned Beijing that supporting the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine could become a basis for imposing sanctions. However, the expected benefits that Beijing will receive in the event of a Russian victory may be more significant for it than the risks and costs.
The article notes that China has already gained some benefits by supporting Russia:
“The whole world is not ready to follow the US unconditionally, even on what officials in Washington consider a black-and-white issue, such as the situation with Ukraine. And this has become much clearer since the start of the war,” – emphasized journalist Edward Wong, who covers world politics.
However, according to the authors of the article, Russian support is already having “unpleasant consequences” for China. In particular, during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to France this month, European leaders criticized Beijing's position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In addition, the West was incredibly able to unite, which has not happened for decades. And for the United States, the support provided by China to Moscow became the basis for more stringent trade restrictions.
If Russia loses, China could be left with a weakened partner and damage relations with some of the world's largest economies. To balance risks and rewards, China is trying to walk a fine line. He boasts of a “no restrictions” partnership with Russia while trying to convince the West of his neutrality in the war.
What consequences await China
According to the authors of the article, whether Beijing’s bets on supporting Moscow will be justified depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
If the West stops helping Ukraine and it loses the war, Russia will regain its status as a world leader, and the West will no longer look as strong and united as before. This could give China a free hand to be more aggressive in its territorial claims in Taiwan, the South China Sea and on the border with India.
But if the West remains united, Ukraine too wins, everything will be exactly the opposite. Russia will be weakened and embarrassed. The United States and its allies will prove their strength. And China may give up its aggressive claims to expand its borders at the expense of its neighbors.
Recall that China spoke about ways out of the war in Ukraine. Beijing said it was addressing its calls for de-escalation to both Kyiv and Moscow.
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