China will oust the USA from first place five years earlier than expected. In ten years from Europe only Germany will be in the top 5.
According to British economic experts, China will replace the USA as the world's largest economy as early as 2028 – five years earlier than previously expected. As the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) explains in its annual report published on Saturday, China is recovering from the corona crisis faster and more strongly than the USA.
“The Covid-19 pandemic and the associated economic effects favor China in this rivalry,” write the economists. The success of its own tough measures against Corona and the setbacks for long-term economic growth in the west have improved China's relative economic strength.
Growth forecasts
Last year, China with a gross domestic product of 14.4 trillion dollars (11.8 trillion euros) was still well behind the USA with 21.4 trillion dollars. However, the CEBR predicts average annual growth of 5.7 percent for the People's Republic from 2021 to 2025, and of 4.5 percent for the years 2026 to 2030.
The USA will recover vigorously from the pandemic in 2021, but will only grow 1.9 percent annually between 2022 and 2024, after that by an average of 1.6 percent.
Japan is estimated to remain the world's third largest economy for the time being until it is overtaken by India in the early 2030s . Germany will then slide to fifth place from its current fourth place.
Asian countries on the overtaking course
The ranking is currently the five largest economic powers in the world: USA, China, Japan, Germany, Great Britain.
In ten years it will be: China, USA, India, Japan, Germany (Great Britain slips out of the top 5).
If you include the EU (excluding the UK) or the euro zone as a whole in the ranking, the Europeans will still be in third place in ten years from India and Japan. As a single European, only Germany will soon play in the top league.
For comparison, the GDP figures for 2019: 17.4 billion euros in the USA, 14.4 billion euros in China, 4.1 billion euros in Japan, 3.4 billion euros in Germany, 2.4 billion in India. The EU generated almost 14 trillion euros in 2019.
