Changing winds will bring extreme weather to Europe by 2060
Scientists from the University of Arizona (USA) analyzed how air currents in the North Atlantic have changed over the past 1250 years. The study helped make a forecast for the future, and it turned out to be very pessimistic, according to PNAS .
The members of the research team collected ice samples from 50 sites on the island of Greenland. With their help, they reconstructed the movement of winds in this region, starting from the 8th century.
The North Atlantic jet stream is a “ribbon” of winds that orbits the Arctic at high altitude. These winds affect temperature and rainfall rates in eastern North America and Western Europe.
So, in 1347, when famine hit the Iberian Peninsula, the jet stream was unusually far to the north. This caused weather changes that ruined the crop. During the lean years in the British Isles and Ireland (1728 and 1740, respectively), the wind blew almost twice as strong as usual, dramatically reducing temperatures and reducing rainfall. Historians have established that due to lack of food in 1740, about 500 thousand people died.
Scientists noted that in recent decades, wind flows have been within the limits of natural variability. Human-induced warming did not significantly affect them. But in the future, everything may change.
With a further increase in temperatures, the flow will move northward and by 2060 may go beyond its natural limits. This will bring natural disasters in the form of droughts and floods. So, if the jet stream is closer to the south, then calm weather with moderate precipitation is established on the Iberian Peninsula. But if the winds move northward, the moisture they carry is forced into the already humid regions of Scandinavia, increasing the risk of flooding.
“Our results act as a warning. We can still influence the jet stream by keeping it within its natural boundaries, ”the authors noted.
Another study predicted extreme droughts in Europe over the next 80 years. It is also linked to climate change.
