Main points
- It has been said many times that Russia may attack some NATO countries.
- Former SBU employee Ivan Stupak believes that it is unlikely that this will be a full-scale war. Russia will probably go for a different scenario.
There have been many suggestions that Russia might one day attack a NATO country. But it won't necessarily be a full-scale war.
Former SBU employee Ivan Stupak told Channel 24 about this, noting that Russia has indeed spent colossal resources on a full-scale war against Ukraine. It is unlikely that they will be able to do something similar against NATO countries in the coming years. There may be a different scenario here.
What can Russia do?
As Stupak noted, Russia may well resort to hybrid operations. These could be the same little green men and a small territory of the same Estonia.
What are they experts in? These hybrid operations. Girkin, Strelkov, Bezler. Small groups that can penetrate the territory of the Baltic states. The same city of Narva. They will seize a police station, take weapons, proclaim a “republic”. You don't need many people for this. 100-200 people, – noted Stupak.
In this way, Russia may try to “cut off” part of the territory of one of the NATO countries. If the Alliance does not react, this will seriously damage the image of this structure.
If Russia goes for such a scenario, then Ukraine will definitely need to help its allies. It is clear that it will hardly be possible to transfer ground units there. But it would be quite possible to carry out something like Operation Spider Web against the Russian Baltic fleet.
Despite this, if Russia opens a second front against NATO, this will only bring its defeat closer.
Let us add that the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, General Carsten Broer, noted that NATO countries must be aware of the threats from Russia. It could attack the Alliance in the next 4 years.
