Key points
- The escalation in the Middle East has brought Russia tactical advantages, such as rising oil prices, but strategically it threatens stagnation and international isolation.
- Political scientist Oleg Saakyan notes that although Russia has received certain tactical benefits, it is suffering losses in strategic terms, in particular due to possible actions by the United States.
The escalation in the Middle East has given Russia some tactical advantages, including rising oil prices. However, strategically it threatens stagnation, diplomatic losses and increased international isolation.
In addition, American leader Donald Trump may decide to seriously strike at Russia. As political scientist Oleg Saakyan noted to Channel 24, despite some tactical advantages, Moscow is suffering losses in strategic terms.
Why the Escalation in the Middle East Doesn't Play into Russia's Hands
According to the political scientist, the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East has created a number of tactical advantages for Russia.
Among them:
- An increase in oil prices, which partially offsets the previous decline;
- Reorientation of weapons, in particular those that could be transferred to Israel, but which could end up in Ukraine;
- Rising prices for weapons, in particular for NATO-caliber ammunition.
That is, there are a number of positives for Russia, but they do not outweigh the strategic negatives. They are all positive bonuses in a very bad situation, – noted Oleg Saakyan.
Iran cannot block transit yet, because in that case its naval forces will be destroyed – all players also understand this.
Strategic threats to Russia.
- Demand for Russian oil is declining. The situation creates risks for Russia, as its exports will remain stagnant. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and other countries are increasing production.
- Losses on the diplomatic front. Iran is turning from an ally into a country that needs help. If Russia does not help, it will be perceived as a betrayal of a partner, regardless of the agreements signed. If it does help, it will further isolate itself on the international arena, in particular from the United States. This will also divert resources that Russia itself already lacks.
- A precedent for the use of force by the United States. Trump's strike on Iran is a landmark moment. It sets a precedent for the United States to openly use force. This changes the perception of what Trump might dare to do. If this brings him political dividends, the likelihood of such actions being repeated increases, including against Russia.
While Russia has gained some tactical benefits from the escalation between Israel and Iran, it is losing strategically.
