Experts have described all sorts of disasters, from artificial intelligence threats to deadly epidemics, while also raising the issue of progress, particularly in some unexpected global hot spots.
The American publication Politico has published a list of “black swans” that could happen in 2025 year. Thus, 15 futurologists, scientists, foreign policy analysts and other experts made forecasts on unpredictable, unlikely and explosive events that could happen during the year.
This is stated in an article on the Politico website.
The authors of the publication recall that 2024 has often seemed crazy, with an assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump, a war in the Middle East and the failure of Joe Biden's presidential campaign. But there is no reason to believe that 2025 will be calmer, the journalists noted.
Thus, the publication's experts described all sorts of catastrophes, from threats from artificial intelligence to deadly epidemics, but they also raised the issue of progress, in particular, in some unexpected global hot spots.
“The following scenarios may or may not happen in 2025, but we shouldn't dismiss them out of hand. When we ran this exercise last year, a number of the predictions were eerily prescient,” the article notes.
Possible “Black Swans” in 2025
The Biggest Cyberattack in History. The world could easily witness the biggest cyberattack in history, taking down, at least temporarily, much of the world's infrastructure. This could happen for ransom or to manipulate markets. The perfect tool for cyberattacks is generative artificial intelligence, which is growing in popularity and falling in price.
A secret agreement aimed at stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons.Experts have made a prediction describing the following scenario: Russian President Vladimir Putin calls US President Donald Trump late at night on a private secure line and tells him that he has a secret agreement to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. In the scenario, Putin has convinced Iran to agree to a five-year pause in any nuclear weapons on the condition that Trump dissuades Israel from attacking. And the US president manages to convince Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of this by conveying to him a promise from the Saudi PM to normalize relations with Israel on the condition that the country refrains from attacking Iran.
A clash in the US over changes to state borders.This scenario assumes that Trump agrees, at the request of the Greater Idaho secession movement, to support the transfer of 15 counties from Oregon to Idaho. Suddenly, the secessionists are on the march. Within weeks, state capitals will be filled with “New State” or “No State” protests, sponsored by groups hoping to secede from their state or, in the case of Texas and California, the entire country. By the fall, there may be violence, with police trying to contain a large rally in upstate New York with rubber bullets. Trump will move on to other issues. At the same time, the parameters of the division and dissolution of the border will take a step toward greater legitimacy at both the state and national levels, with new referendums and task forces planned for the new year.
A new large-scale epidemic.An outbreak of an infectious disease is possible, with initial symptoms similar to the flu, with fever, headache, muscle aches, and sore throat. In the scenario, patient zero is identified, returning from overseas where an outbreak of an undiagnosed disease has sickened and killed more than 100 people. Authorities are reluctant to implement traditional public health measures: contact tracing, mask-wearing, social distancing, and quarantine of infected people. The outbreak soon reaches epidemic proportions in the United States. The economy is negatively impacted. Eventually, the epidemic will kill thousands of people and return the economy to a recession similar to that caused by Covid-19.
Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping's alliance. Trump's first term was characterized by a trade war between China and the United States. But 2025 could be the year Trump and Xi discover they have more in common than they seem. Beijing may “curb its pretensions to dominance” and grapple with its economic problems, while Washington's priorities change. Among them may be ending Russia's war in Ukraine.
A two-state solution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians This would logically require a new Israeli government that would sideline the right-wing. Israel would also have to dismantle a significant number of its West Bank settlements, as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak proposed in 2000. The Palestinians will have to reject the current leadership and find a way to unite under a new leadership that can represent them in negotiations. There must be some agreement on reconstruction and governance of Gaza. This will require a push from the major Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Global panic due to market collapse.AI is fed massive amounts of real-time market data (stock prices, volatility), financial reports (earnings, debt levels), and economic indicators, while simultaneously mining social media like X and Reddit to gauge public sentiment. Misinformation can be spread: creating rumors about company management, fabricating news of a product recall or safety threat, or creating false evidence of financial fraud. A bad actor causes artificial market panic as the AI performs high-frequency trading with superhuman precision, and encourages hedge funds and others to follow suit. The scale of a technical malfunction is shocking. It will be impossible to easily implement countermeasures. A market crash will cause global panic, uncertainty will plague investors everywhere, and possible copycat attacks on the London and Tokyo stock exchanges.
Climate Action Becomes the Norm In 2024 alone, the United States experienced 24 billion-dollar-plus disasters. In the 2025 scenario, as both the risks of climate change and the benefits of climate solutions become clearer, bipartisan support for action grows. The Inflation Reduction Act catalyzed unprecedented investment in clean energy. Society is rapidly approaching a tipping point in public opinion where climate action becomes the norm rather than the exception. To the surprise of many, 2025 could be the year that this change occurs.
Unexpected Geopolitical Alliances and Realignments. Experts suggest imagining a sudden rise in artificial superintelligence along with the maturation of quantum computing. This technological leap could catalyze significant GDP growth in new industries. The advances could lead to unexpected geopolitical alliances and realignments on a global scale, particularly changing the US relationship with the Middle East, Europe, and, in particular, increasing productivity in Africa and India. Such developments would fundamentally change the global economic and political landscape.
There is potential for dramatic change in the Middle East. Trump could, in all likelihood, engineer a cessation of hostilities in Gaza, Syria, and southern Lebanon, and move toward peace and stability that could pave the way for democratic development in Syria and stabilization in Lebanon. This scenario would depend on complex international negotiations and the willingness of the parties involved to consolidate gains and move toward peace—a monumental task that could dramatically alter the socio-political fabric of the Middle East.
Vulnerability of global infrastructure to major disruptions from cyberattacks, geological upheavals, or solar events. Such events could cripple energy and communications networks, affecting everything from satellites to transportation systems around the world. The interconnectedness of modern infrastructures means that the ripple effects of such disruptions can be global in scale, affecting economic stability and everyday living conditions.
South Korea's Secret Nuclear Weapons Program. The scenario depicts events as a surprise nuclear weapons test on the Korean Peninsula shocks the world – and it's not North Korea. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung makes an announcement that stuns the world: the country is a nuclear weapons state, and it is invoking Article X of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to withdraw from the treaty.
The American Army Enters the Age of the Unvaccinated. In this scenario, the US Secretary of Defense might announce that no vaccine will be mandatory for the entire military anymore: not for Covid, not for the flu, not for anything else. Meanwhile, on a Texas dairy farm, a virulent strain of H1N1 bird flu jumps from the cows to the farmers. Since some of the families of the farm workers work at the Fort Cavazos military base, an outbreak occurs there too. It is the strain that causes acute respiratory failure. Dozens of workers and soldiers die. The government makes no statement, the Secretary of Defense refuses to take action. The flu spreads across the country and the globe, and more and more troops fall ill. From Mexico to China, East Asia, Europe and Russia, militaries and governments launch vaccination campaigns. Foreign governments vainly call on the US for protective measures and vaccines on bases. Military cooperation breaks down. The European public finally begins to call for defense spending. As bird flu spreads, generals begin to warn that America's fighting force is being depleted by disease and death, and the American military is becoming increasingly incapacitated. A vaccinated and newly militarized Europe is demanding the expulsion of American troops. A new security order is taking shape in vaccinated countries, and capital markets are fleeing to healthier havens.
The overthrow of Alexander Lukashenko's regime. A negative outcome for the Kremlin in the war against Ukraine could challenge Putin's rule, experts say. The people of Belarus could gain their freedom by taking advantage of the weakened position of the Russian president and his inability to intervene to save self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko.
Loss of power would radically change the lives of Americans. There is no doubt that energy demand will be high in 2025. Not only will this result in rapidly increasing emissions, but it will also pose energy security and grid failure risks, exacerbated by extreme weather. However, even without a natural disaster, a “black swan” event is possible in Cuba. In this scenario, the country’s power grid collapses due to aging infrastructure, coupled with a storm and earthquake, leaving residents without power for months. In the United States, more than 70% of power lines and transformers are more than 25 years old and were built when energy demand was low to moderate. On the other hand, there is a cybersecurity risk; hackers will continue to attack critical infrastructure from water plants to energy suppliers. At the core of the problem is a national security threat. Without power, any county, city, or country is vulnerable to cyberattacks targeting healthcare and finance. The loss of power would fundamentally upend American life and lead to immediate and chaotic political reactions.
The temptation to reach for nuclear weapons may be too hard to resist. Russian media have repeatedly stated that the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons would be a perfectly reasonable response to the failures in the war with Ukraine. If nuclear powers like Russia, China, and North Korea launch aggressive attacks on their neighbors in an effort to achieve “final victory,” and if those attacks fail, the temptation to reach for nuclear weapons may be too hard to resist.
A Decisive Breakthrough in Quantum Computing. In a scenario in late 2025, a decisive breakthrough in quantum computing could occur at China's Tsinghua University that would make it a practical reality for nations and large companies. It would be a weapon in the trade war to deprive many Americans of privacy protections. The implementation of a practical quantum computer could well render obsolete many of the cryptographic protections currently used to protect personal and corporate data. In such a scenario, both individuals and nations will seek terrible isolation in its absence.
By the way, earlier the Newsweek publication shared forecasts for Ukraine. Thus, the majority believes that 2025 may be the year of the end of active hostilities, but not the end of the war.
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