Also, the former US Secretary of State is convinced that Ukraine should become a member of the EU and NATO within the framework of the post-war security organization of Ukraine.
Russia is an isolated and heavily militarized country. But Putin cannot lose this war, he is ready to sacrifice everything to prevent a catastrophe. Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice writes about this in her article “The Danger of Isolationism: The World Still Needs America, and America Still Needs the World” for Foreign Affairs.
According to her, Moscow assumed that Ukraine would fall within days of the February 2022 invasion. Russian troops were carrying provisions for three days and dress uniforms for a parade they were supposed to hold in Kiev.
“The first year of the war exposed the weaknesses of the Russian military, riddled with corruption and incompetence. But as it has throughout history, Russia stabilized the front by relying on old-fashioned tactics like human wave attacks, trenches, and mines. The piecemeal way the U.S. and its allies supplied weapons to Ukraine — first debating whether to send tanks, then doing so, and so on — gave Moscow room to mobilize its military-industrial complex and exploit its enormous manpower advantage,” notes Condoleezza Rice.
The diplomat adds that at the start of the war, NATO was worried that Moscow might attack supply lines in Poland and Romania [through which aid to Ukraine is sent – ed.]. So far, Putin has shown no desire to challenge the Alliance’s Article 5, but the Black Sea (which the tsars considered a Russian lake) has once again become a source of conflict and tension. And it is noteworthy, according to Rice, that Ukraine, which has almost no navy, has successfully challenged Russian naval power and can now ship grain along its own coast.
Condoleezza Rice believes that the economic damage will haunt Moscow for years. About 1 million Russians have fled their country in response to Putin’s war, many of them young and well-educated. Russia's oil and gas industry has been battered by the loss of key markets and the exit of multinational oil giants BP, Exxon and Shell.
“China has stepped in to relieve some of the pressure. But cracks in the Russian economy are showing. The challenge is compounded by Russia's growing cooperation with China, Iran and North Korea. The four countries share a common goal of undermining and replacing the U.S.-led international system they detest. But their strategic interests are not easy to reconcile,” the American diplomat wrote in her article.
She believes that Beijing cannot afford to let Putin lose, but it also has no real enthusiasm for creating a new Russian empire, especially if it exposes China to secondary sanctions against its own economy, which is in poor shape. condition.
Recall that the leader of the PRC “gladly accepted” Putin's invitation to take part in the BRICS summit, which will be held in October. Putin noted that within the framework of this summit they plan to hold bilateral talks, during which they will discuss the further development of Russian-Chinese relations, which, according to him, are actively progressing.
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