Iran's underground Fordow facility is the epitome of Iran's nuclear ambitions. It remains to be seen whether the bunker, built in the heart of a massive mountain, can be destroyed.
Hidden deep inside a mountain and protected from the world's most powerful bunker buster bombs, Iran's Fordow nuclear facility remains one of the world's most mysterious and inaccessible sites. Satellite images show just five tunnels, a large support structure and a security perimeter. The complex, located near the holy city of Qom, has been the subject of speculation about its true purpose and size since its discovery in 2009.
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The Fordow Mystery: Depth, Purpose, and Revealed
Much of the information about Fordow comes from a huge archive of Iranian documents previously stolen by Israeli intelligence. The main halls of the facility are estimated to be 80-90 meters underground, making it invulnerable to any aerial bomb in Israel's possession. This makes it nearly impossible to destroy it from the air.
Some analysts have suggested that Fordow could be a place where Iran could speed up the conversion of its stockpile of enriched uranium into a nuclear bomb. Israel has tried to attack the facility in recent days but has so far been unable to damage it, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tehran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, but Fordow has always been a source of great concern.
“The size and configuration of this facility are not consistent with a peaceful program,” then-US President Barack Obama said in 2009 when he, along with Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown, revealed Fordow's existence to the world.
The Iranians told the IAEA of their desire to build a new enrichment plant just days before the official announcement, when it became clear that Western intelligence agencies already knew about the facility. Fordow had been under construction for years.
David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) noted that “Fordo is a project that began during the accelerated nuclear weapons program of the early 2000s.” attacks.
Uranium Enrichment and the Challenges to Destruction
Fordow's dangers were greatly reduced by the Joint Comprehensive Nuclear Poisoning Agreement (JCPOA), which required Iran to remove most of its centrifuges and nuclear material. That process was abandoned when US President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018.
In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released detailed plans for Fordow and information about its purpose – to produce weapons-grade uranium for one or two nuclear warheads per year.
Recent IAEA reports show that Iran has increased production of enriched uranium to 60% at the Fordow facility, which now contains 2,700 centrifuges.
“Iran’s significantly increased production and stockpiling of highly enriched uranium… is a matter of grave concern,” the IAEA said on May 31.
Experts point out that 60 percent enrichment serves little purpose other than preparing for further enrichment to weapons grade. According to ISIS, Iran could turn its current stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium (enough for nine nuclear warheads) in three weeks.
That makes Fordow a prime target for Israel in its efforts to destroy Iran's nuclear program. However, destroying Fordow from the air would be nearly impossible for Israel, according to a report by Britain's RUSI. It would require significant firepower and U.S. assistance, as even U.S. GBU-57 bunker busters would be unable to reach the target at a depth of 60 meters, and their delivery requires B-2 bombers, which Israel does not have. Experts believe that multiple hits would be needed to destroy Fordow.
Other ways to disable Fordo include destroying the tunnel entrances and ventilation system, which could cripple the facility for a month, David Albright said. He noted that Fordo is only part of the puzzle, and even destroying it would not eliminate all the threats posed by Iran's nuclear program.
Recall that Trump is hesitant to strike Iran's nuclear facility. He abandoned the attack on Fordow due to doubts about the effectiveness of the GBU-57 bomb.
