Russian fighters managed to advance in Bakhmut. However, they will not have much success.
The daily report of the Institute for the Study of War notes that the occupying troops occupied the eastern part of Bakhmut after a controlled tactical retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, they have no prospects for serious success in this direction.
Tension in Bakhmut
The founder of PIK Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on March 8 that Russian troops had captured the entire eastern Bakhmut. The ISW report states that this claim is consistent with the visual evidence available. On March 7, ISW estimated that Ukrainian forces completed a controlled withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut via the Bakhmutka River.
ISW experts estimate that Russian troops occupy about 50 percent of Bakhmut.
Russian troops are likely to intensify attacks in the northwest and southwest of Bakhmut (north of Poprosnoy and south of Yagodnoye, respectively) to bypass the Bakhmutka River, the report said.
The ISW is convinced that the Russians are unlikely to be able to quickly use the breakthrough beyond Bakhmut, even when they capture the city. They noted that there were no signs that the Russian military had well-equipped and trained reserve forces for an offensive for Bakhmut.
Most of the Russian units monitored in Donbas are already involved in offensive operations, including Russian airborne troops that joined the Russian offensive on Bakhmut in January 2023, analysts say.
The ISW assumes that the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will soon culminate if Russian forces capture Bakhmut, as the Russian military does not have the combat power or reinforcements needed to exploit the Bakhmut breach.
What is the situation in Bakhmut?
- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a meeting of EU defense ministers in Stockholm on March 8 said that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut could fall in the coming days. However, this will not necessarily be a turning point in the war.
- Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar noted that forecasting military actions is a thankless task. Malyar stressed that the battles in Bakhmut exhaust the enemy and urged to trust only the military.
