Russian scientists from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology have suggested that a sharp anomalous warming in the Arctic may occur not only due to the direct impact of anthropogenic emissions, but also for other reasons. For example, a series of earthquakes, which accelerated the release of methane from the shelf zone, may be the cause of record high temperatures in the Arctic Circle. An unexpected explanation is reported in an article published in the journal Geosciences.
During the period of observations of the temperature of the Arctic, two peaks were noted: in the 20-30s of the XX century and from 1980 to the present day. According to the new hypothesis, the cause of these peaks may be geodynamic factors, for example, tremors in the Aleutian arc, a chain of volcanic islands that stretches from Kamchatka to Alaska and is a seismically active region.
The proposed hypothesis is supported by the fact that earthquakes recorded in the 20th century preceded temperature jumps by 15-20 years. In addition, scientists have developed a model that predicts the existence of deformation waves propagating at a speed of 100 kilometers per year. It is consistent with the delay time between the earthquake and the subsequent rise in temperature, since it is 15-20 years for the waves to travel two thousand kilometers. Strain waves cause stresses in the lithosphere, which disrupt the structure of metastable gas hydrates and permafrost storing captured methane.
However, more research is required to confirm or disprove the model. In addition, even confirmation of the hypothesis will not exclude the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global climate change.
